p-bm-p and analysis

[UPDATE]
Battlefield: NL$10 6max
Position: 2 buy-ins down & onslaught
Variance: crazy
Suckouts: unbelievable
Attitude: back to solid
Goal: A game
Enough said.
[/UPDATE]

After crazy night of amazing suckouts, I've just did what most usually do when [censored] like that happens - questioning myself and my play. Yes, there were lots of bad beats; it's not the first time; had them before. I know that my job is to play A game all the time and the results will follow, mastered this concept already. And to be honest there was some tilt play too that made me drop down 2 BI instead of only 1. But during thinking, when faced with lots of interfering ideas, all of a sudden I remembered something lots of good players were talking about and I failed (too lazy) to even try: analyzing your game after the session is over.

Sure it's not hard to do. I already have Poker Tracker and it just takes to select the last few sessions and replay. The only problem is ... how to overcome laziness. So I thought hard and came to (possible) solution: p-bm-p !!! Performance - in Big and Medium sized - Pots !!! First of all, one of key aspects of winning at no-limit poker is playing good in big (and medium) pots. Second, by measuring these occurrences and giving 'points' to how I played it, laziness is quite easily suppressed. So p-bm-p is expressed in a form of good plays/bad plays with one point given for each and occasional half point if (more) good or (more) bad are mixed in the same hand. Big and medium pots should be something about 20BB+ or so. After gathering some decent sample size there sure will be a room for statistics. And even psychologically it should be interesting to see it's effects on 'in-game' decisions, given that I'll know there is evaluation to come.

Having said all that, this time I wasn't lazy and went through my last two days and here are my good vs bad decisions in >20BB pots:

p-bm-p 42.5 : 20 or (68%)

So more than two thirds of my 'big' decisions were good which is not bad at all. Now monitoring has started and let's see if I can move this % closer to 100.

100 matches checkpoint

Last month or so I was constantly switching between the games. Some of 6 max - that is beatable if you lower your VP$IP, open for a raise and cbet - but at a low-ish winning rate (and low variance FWIW) and then some of HU cash with OK play and only obstacle being rake, which is horrible @ HU - how FAST it's eating both of you and finally little of HU SNGs.

As for the latter, I caught a sick cooler, never in my life did my made hands ended with a fold due to 4-flush community cards - Pacific lives up to it's reputation. It went like:

HU SNG 5$ + 0.3$:
+ + + -

HU SNG 10$ + 0.5$:
+ - + + + - + - + - - + + - - + - - -

HU SNG 5$ + 0.3$:
+ + +

HU SNG 10$ + 0.5$:
- + + - - -

HU SNG 5$ + 0.3$:
+ - + + - + + - - - + + + + - + - - + + + - + + +

Looking at this someone might not get the idea of how really bad it was, but it was.

So, finally get to reach 100 matches played and this is probably a good moment to step aside and see where I'm now and what to expect:

100 HU SNGs

won:lost 61:39  i.e.  61%

Not bad. It's a small sample size, still not good enough to figure my true rate, but given that the minimum win % is 52.5 (due to rake) and that typical win rates of OK players are in the 60%-66% range I guess I should be satisfied.

As for my rapid gamb00ling idea, it was instructive enough to make me realize that '6 buy-ins then jump' is not very good idea and now that I think of it, it should be definitely bigger - at least 8 buy-ins. Variance is hard to live with. I know, I know 'The nature of the beast' ...

HU cash is brutal game

These days I play HU NL$10 cash games on Everest. Mostly bad players, lots of short-stackers and occasional guy who understands the concept of controlled aggression. Vast majority of players there do not have the idea of when and how to bluff and they do bluff a lot and chase a lot. The most frustrating are the moments when a donk all of a sudden makes a big bluff, after being cute most of the time. It is this and some similar plays that really increase variance. I've noticed that almost everyone there is avid i.e. quite unwilling to let medium sized pot go after investing more than 10BB in it. HU cash is BRUTAL game for light headed and impatient ... and gold mine for patient and cold-blooded one. And I should also add something that's apparently taking place - HU is really sharpening my skills: hand reading, playing position, bluffing, etc. The more I play, the more it is evident.

Tonight's sessions (different opponents) went like win 3$, win 7$, lose 20$, win 6$, win 20$ (crazy game, eh?) for a total profit of ~ $16.

'Super System' revisited

I've almost forgot how FR 10 man table looks like. These days, aside from having internet connection problems (courtesy of my cable provider) for several days, I've played some HU SNG and cash and some 6max for a moderate but decent profit. Low level donks are bad as ever. Beating them is just a matter of time, mixed with a little patience. The most annoying issue I found is the rake. For example: HU Cash, NL10, villain has 7.7$, I sit and buy-in full 10$. It quickly turns out that villain is a maniac type. Due to ugly suck-out I loose first buy-in and reload. Eventually I stack him and only then realize that about 3$+ was eaten. Rake on lower levels is the ultimate profit killer.

During those 'disconnected' days I went to re-examine my poker literature and found a book I've almost forgot about: "Super System" (Hold'em NL chapter) by Doyle Brunson. While reading it for the first time about a year ago, I just wasn't advanced and open-minded enough to really appreciate this masterpiece of one of the best NL hold'em players ever. There is a reason they call it 'Poker Bible' and even after decades it's still a must read for any and every aspiring player. The book is so packed with instructions of what to consider, what to look for and how to think during the hand that reading it for several times is barely enough. There are so many thinking lines and so much 'between the lines' stuff that I have no doubts this is the book one must read lots of times to understand all advanced concepts. And the most interesting thing I found was that, during my evolution as a player I've adopted exactly the same plays for exactly the same reasons as Doyle advocates. How did I miss it the first time LOL. Nowadays you might hear some smart[censored] talking about SS being some obsolete book, not suitable anymore and [censored] like that, which simply is not true. 'Super System' is the complex, all-rounded thinking model of a serious, winning poker player. Can't wait to get some spare time and read it again.

 

'Turn bombing' -> Anti floating maneuver

Samfarha07 is a chronic smart ass floater with tendency to overbet made weak pairs. 'Turn bombing' is just about perfect weapon for those: you raise PF, cbet and then appear weak on turn - when he makes a move - you check raise All-in:


Holdem No Limit $0.02/$0.04

Seat 1 : KllerNstnkt has $3.48
Seat 2 : FireRisk has $20.51
Seat 3 : sawblade has $0.38
Seat 4 : smuge has $0.96
Seat 5 : HERO has $3.52
Seat 6 : Samfarha07 has $8.65
KllerNstnkt is the dealer.
FireRisk posted small blind.
sawblade posted big blind.

Seat 5 : HERO has Kd Kc

HERO called $0.04 and raised $0.16
Samfarha07 called $0.20
KllerNstnkt folded.
FireRisk folded.
sawblade called $0.16

Dealing flop.
Board cards [4s Td 6d]
 sawblade checked.
HERO bet $0.32
Samfarha07 called $0.32 and raised $0.32
sawblade called $0.18 and is All-in
HERO called $0.32

Dealing turn.
Board cards [4s Td 6d 8h]
HERO checked.
Samfarha07 bet $1
HERO called $1 and raised $1.68 and is All-in
Samfarha07 called $1.68

Showdown!
HERO has Kd Kc
sawblade has 4c 4d
Samfarha07 has 7s 7d

Dealing river.
Board cards [4s Td 6d 8h Kh]

HERO wins $5.96 with 3 of a Kind: Kings
HERO wins $1.11 with 3 of a Kind: Kings

Happy New Year! (& update)

These days I didn't have much time to play (due to New Year's madness). Played some HU SNGs and played a little 6max. Stacking donks worked like clockwork. You just wait ... and wait ... limp with SCs and alike ... get a monster and bet it hard! Someone will pay you (at least at low stakes). Strong holdings AA, KK you bet hard straight away. No fancy playing, no 'smart' moves designed to beat thinking players. And that's it - that's how you beat the fish - not a rocket science. I know it now, I knew it for long now and I still wonder why did I ever deviate from this, time proven strategy? Hopefully, no more.



As for HUs and Gamb00ling adventure - did some 5+0.3$:

- + - + + + - - + + - + + +

Current BR:~$46.9